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Research Article: Inclusion probability for DNA mixtures is a subjective one-sided match statistic unrelated to identification information |
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Mark William Perlin J Pathol Inform 2015, 6:59 (28 October 2015) DOI:10.4103/2153-3539.168525 PMID:26605124Background: DNA mixtures of two or more people are a common type of forensic crime scene evidence. A match statistic that connects the evidence to a criminal defendant is usually needed for court. Jurors rely on this strength of match to help decide guilt or innocence. However, the reliability of unsophisticated match statistics for DNA mixtures has been questioned. Materials and Methods: The most prevalent match statistic for DNA mixtures is the combined probability of inclusion (CPI), used by crime labs for over 15 years. When testing 13 short tandem repeat (STR) genetic loci, the CPI -1 value is typically around a million, regardless of DNA mixture composition. However, actual identification information, as measured by a likelihood ratio (LR), spans a much broader range. This study examined probability of inclusion (PI) mixture statistics for 517 locus experiments drawn from 16 reported cases and compared them with LR locus information calculated independently on the same data. The log(PI -1 ) values were examined and compared with corresponding log(LR) values. Results: The LR and CPI methods were compared in case examples of false inclusion, false exclusion, a homicide, and criminal justice outcomes. Statistical analysis of crime laboratory STR data shows that inclusion match statistics exhibit a truncated normal distribution having zero center, with little correlation to actual identification information. By the law of large numbers (LLN), CPI -1 increases with the number of tested genetic loci, regardless of DNA mixture composition or match information. These statistical findings explain why CPI is relatively constant, with implications for DNA policy, criminal justice, cost of crime, and crime prevention. Conclusions: Forensic crime laboratories have generated CPI statistics on hundreds of thousands of DNA mixture evidence items. However, this commonly used match statistic behaves like a random generator of inclusionary values, following the LLN rather than measuring identification information. A quantitative CPI number adds little meaningful information beyond the analyst's initial qualitative assessment that a person's DNA is included in a mixture. Statistical methods for reporting on DNA mixture evidence should be scientifically validated before they are relied upon by criminal justice. |
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Letter to Editor: Response to Rojo and Bueno: "Analysis of the impact of high resolution monitors in digital pathology" |
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Rebecca Randell, Roy A Ruddle, Rhys G Thomas, Darren Treanor J Pathol Inform 2015, 6:58 (28 October 2015) DOI:10.4103/2153-3539.168522 PMID:26605123 |
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Commentary: Analysis of the impact of high-resolution monitors in digital pathology |
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Marcial García Rojo, Gloria Bueno J Pathol Inform 2015, 6:57 (28 October 2015) PMID:26605122 |
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Research Article: Diagnostic performance on briefly presented digital pathology images |
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Joseph P Houghton, Bruce R Smoller, Niamh Leonard, Michael R Stevenson, Tim Dornan J Pathol Inform 2015, 6:56 (28 October 2015) DOI:10.4103/2153-3539.168517 PMID:26605121Background: Identifying new and more robust assessments of proficiency/expertise (finding new "biomarkers of expertise") in histopathology is desirable for many reasons. Advances in digital pathology permit new and innovative tests such as flash viewing tests and eye tracking and slide navigation analyses that would not be possible with a traditional microscope. The main purpose of this study was to examine the usefulness of time-restricted testing of expertise in histopathology using digital images. Methods: 19 novices (undergraduate medical students), 18 intermediates (trainees), and 19 experts (consultants) were invited to give their opinion on 20 general histopathology cases after 1 s and 10 s viewing times. Differences in performance between groups were measured and the internal reliability of the test was calculated. Results: There were highly significant differences in performance between the groups using the Fisher's least significant difference method for multiple comparisons. Differences between groups were consistently greater in the 10-s than the 1-s test. The Kuder-Richardson 20 internal reliability coefficients were very high for both tests: 0.905 for the 1-s test and 0.926 for the 10-s test. Consultants had levels of diagnostic accuracy of 72% at 1 s and 83% at 10 s. Conclusions: Time-restricted tests using digital images have the potential to be extremely reliable tests of diagnostic proficiency in histopathology. A 10-s viewing test may be more reliable than a 1-s test. Over-reliance on "at a glance" diagnoses in histopathology is a potential source of medical error due to over-confidence bias and premature closure. |
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Research Article: Utility of telepathology as a consultation tool between an off-site surgical pathology suite and affiliated hospitals in the frozen section diagnosis of lung neoplasms |
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Taisia Vitkovski, Tawfiqul Bhuiya, Michael Esposito J Pathol Inform 2015, 6:55 (28 October 2015) DOI:10.4103/2153-3539.168515 PMID:26605120Background: Increasingly, as in our institution, operating rooms are located in hospitals and the pathology suite is located at a distant location because of off-site consolidation of pathology services. Telepathology is a technology which bridges the gap between pathologists and offers a means to obtain a consultation remotely. We aimed to evaluate the utility of telepathology as a means to assist the pathologist at the time of intraoperative consultation of lung nodules when a subspecialty pathologist is not available to directly review the slide. Methods: Cases of lung nodules suspicious for a neoplasm were included. Frozen sections were prepared in the usual manner. The pathologists on the intraoperative consultation service at two of our system hospitals notified the thoracic pathologist of each case after rendering a preliminary diagnosis. The consultation was performed utilizing a Nikon™ Digital Sight camera and web-based Remote Medical Technologies™ software with live video streaming directed by the host pathologist. The thoracic pathologist rendered a diagnosis without knowledge of the preliminary interpretation then discussed the interpretation with the frozen section pathologist. The interpretations were compared with the final diagnosis rendered after sign-out. Results: One hundred and three consecutive cases were included. The frozen section pathologist and a thoracic pathologist had concordant diagnoses in 93 cases (90.2%), discordant diagnoses in nine cases (8.7%), and one case in which both deferred. There was an agreement between the thoracic pathologist's diagnosis and the final diagnosis in 98% of total cases including 8/9 (88.9%) of the total discordant cases. In two cases, if the thoracic pathologist had not been consulted, the patient would have been undertreated. Conclusions: We have shown that telepathology is an excellent consultation tool in the frozen section diagnosis of lung nodules. |
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